"Shia Muslims of southern Iraq will mount an uprising against Saddam Hussein as soon as US and British troops invade," reports Patrick Cockburn. "A rebellion by the Shia would complicate plans by the US for an orderly occupation of Iraq. Earlier in the month, American officials angered representatives of the Iraqi opposition, much of which is Shia and Kurdish, at a meeting in Ankara, Turkey by revealing that America planned a military government for Iraq but would keep in place most of the Sunni establishment that had served President Hussein. ... The problem for the US is much the same as it was in 1991 when President Saddam had been defeated in Kuwait and had lost 14 out of Iraq's 18 provinces to Shia and Kurdish rebels. While the US wanted regime change and the Iraqi leader toppled, it did not want revolutionary change. But if democracy was introduced in Iraq, revolutionary change would be inevitable because Shia and Kurds make up three-quarters of the Iraqi population."
From Saddam to Shia Revolution